Yesterday I looked at general trends in recent sixth-year (of a presidential cycle) elections. I believe that 1998 and 1986 are more relevant to the upcoming election than 1994, 2002, 1990, or 1982. However, it is true that the example of 1994 cannot be entirely discounted just because it was a second-year election. But even if we allow that second-year election historical trends may in general be as applicable to 2006 as sixth-year examples are, this particular election year still has far more in common with 1998 than with 1994.

1994 was different than ’98 or ’06 in that the Republicans achieved their gains by promoting themselves positively (via the Contract with America). The 1998 GOP tried to go down a different road. They thought they smelled blood in the water in the wake of Whitewater, Monicagate, and Wag the Dog. They promised impeachment and investigation. And the electorate rejected this message.

Today’s Democrat faithful are making the same mistakes that overzealous Republicans made in 1998. They fail to understand that not every lapse can effectively be used to tar every member of the opposite party. The Democrats have overreached themselves in trying to turn Mark Foley’s personal scandal into a vast Republican conspiracy and coverup. Like Monicagate, the situation just doesn’t have nearly as wide a reach as the true believers would like it to have.

Besides that, the scandal is already four weeks old and by election day will be six weeks old. The public tends to move on fairly quickly (as we were exhorted to do by the left after Clinton’s impeachment). After a certain point, efforts to keep a controversy alive are not only nonproductive, but counterproductive. Republicans eventually did themselves more harm than they did the Democrats by bludgeoning the public with the phrase “semen-stained dress.” When a one-note messenger just won’t shut up, eventually you are left with no alternative but to shoot him. Whether that’s fair or unfair is beside the point.

The electorate in general – especially the critical swing portion – does not have the endless appetite for outrage that the hardcore base on each side has. They are offended by Foley and weary of the war– but they are also put off by the glee displayed by some Democrats and their media mouthpieces about what most people regard as grave issues. The Republicans made the same mistake over Clinton’s affair and lying – a black eye for the whole country, not just one party – and the Democrats made it in 2002 at Paul Wellstone’s funeral.

Democrat Congressman John Dingell, former (and possibly future) chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, reminiscences fondly about the glory days of the committee during the glory days of the Democrat-controlled House in the 80s and early 90s. As Newsweek puts it, “At times the chairman seemed more prosecutor than politician. He used his gavel to call dozens of hearings.” Dingell predicts of his party’s likely actions should they regain control of the House that, “…we'll probably have lots of hearings.” [Presumably, on pretty much every action and inaction taken by the Bush administration and the Republican-controlled Congress]. This is exactly the kind of prospect that sends a few thousand fanatical lefties into paroxysms of joy – and turns off everyone else.

Time magazine explained in a 1998 post-election story, “The GOP thought it was its year. But Democrats got the last laugh by talking issues, not investigations.” Exactly.